COVID-19 could kill 3,000 to 15,000 people in Ontario, provincial modelling shows

Background, from left: Matthew Anderson, president and CEO of Ontario Health, Dr. Peter Donnelly, president and CEO of Public Health Ontario and Adalsteinn Brown of the University of Toronto explain their COVID-19 provincial modelling. 
Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press

Date Published: April 3, 2020

Source: CBC

The Ontario government has released new modelling projections for the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities expected in the province by the end of April. Based on the restrictions currently in place, the province’s modellers forecast 1,600 deaths within Ontario by April 30th, down from 6,000 had no measures been implemented. Over the course of the entire pandemic, experts believe the total number of deaths within the province could be between 3000 to 15,000 over a two year time period to account for secondary and tertiary waves. The current provincial mortality rate is highest in the elderly population, with 16% for those over 80 years old, and 10% for those over 70. There is also a growing number of COVID-19 patients requiring ICU care, and although there are currently 410 beds available provincially and a plan for the addition of 900 more, the number of available ICU beds in parts of the GTA has diminished over the last several days.

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Summary by: Helen Genis