The current study estimates an approximate 60-70% reduction in the transmission of COVID-19 during the summer months due to lower spread in warmer weather. These estimations are rough as spread relies heavily on other factors such as population density, the effectiveness of preventative measures, and climate conditions.
Spiridonov, V. et al. Climate variability and seasonal weather related to COVID-19. Advances in Health and Behavior (2020). https://doi.org/10.25082/AHB.2020.01.002
16 April 2020
As with other respiratory infections, COVID-19 is thought to vary in prevalence depending on climate. As such, it is of great interest to decision makers to effectively predict the weather patterns of the coming months. It is thought that increased temperature, decrease in humidity, and longer daylight will all factor in to reducing the transmission of COVID-19. Based on the current model, it is anticipated that the period of May-June, 2020 will be 1 to 2°C warmer than average, thus allowing for optimistic decreases in viral transmission over this period. However, since long-term weather forecasts are an imperfect science and since there are many other factors that contribute to disease transmission, one should take these predictions with caution.
Summary by: Gil Yerushalmi